tv With All Due Respect Bloomberg October 21, 2016 8:00pm-9:01pm EDT
donny: i'm donny deutsch. john: and i'm john heilemann. with "with all due respect," i think we found our winner. >> i feel very confident clayton kershaw is a great pitcher. too many sticks. john: we have too many sticks all right. we have a couple of big sticks, including donny deutsch of new york city. only two fridays left before the finale of the presidential contest. again, republicans are going into the weekend beat up and more convinced the race is over.
since donald trump self-sabotaged his final debate, the attempt to clean up the mess made it worse. last night, trump made history in gotham city, the first candidate ever to get booed at the catholic charities dinner. today at a rally north carolina, he took a rare swipe at hillary clinton's most beloved surrogate, first lady michelle obama. that is a no-no. he also said he will be happy with the way he ran his campaign win or lose. donald trump: i will have known, win, lose, or draw, and i am sure if the people come out, we will win. but i will be happy with myself. john: donald trump singing the old frank sinatra tune, "i did it my way." his prospects seem to be getting
more dire by the day. a new poll shows him with a narrow lead in the red state, 44/42%, effectively a statistical tie. michael steele is reportedly saying he will not vote for his party's nominee, adding a bunch of harsh language about trump in that. given the way trump has acted the last couple of days and the growing sense of doom in his party, what should republicans do over the course of these last 18 days before the election? donny: other than cry? i have to quote chuck todd about the al smith dinner. trump is the first one to lose the al smith dinner. stunning. he is a conundrum for the republicans. they only have one play. if you are the r.n.c., you're trying to get swing voters, moderate voters, independent voters. number one, an avid trump
supporter is an avid trump supporter. number two, an avid hillary hater is a lot of people. some people are voting for hillary clinton. that is the play. the overall stance is we need to protect the fort. let's stop hillary clinton one way or the other. this way, you don't disenfranchise the trump zealots and it is a way to get some of those people who are going to vote for hillary so begrudgingly, even the 69% of people who do not like her will vote for her, give them permission to say we will stop her in a different way. somehow get that message out. you keep the candidates clean and get the message out. john: i think there is one way to get the message out. we are starting to see it already. in new hampshire, the chamber of commerce has got an ad that is
explicitly saying elect kelly ayotte in new hampshire to keep a balance on hillary clinton as president. it does not say we are giving up on the presidency or accepting hillary clinton will win, but i think that is the first of what will be a substantial number of ads like that where outside groups who are acknowledging clinton will win will try desperately to keep hold of the senate majority by making that argument explicitly. saying this is the last, best hope we have to stop the clinton agenda. let's focus down ballot and vote as a counter check to her. forget about donald trump. don't repudiate him but also don't talk about him. donny: it makes sense because many people are not voting for her. they are voting against trump. i think that will be a sound strategy. i know a lot of people that would play along with that game. the associated press is reporting hillary clinton's campaign is preparing for a
scenario in which donald trump refuses to concede the election if he loses. that scenario would complicate a crucial transition for the campaign as well as for the country that has been divided over this election. with increasing speculation trump might challenge the integrity of the election, what happens next if he refuses to acknowledge a clinton victory? john: a huge amount hinges on how close the outcome is. if hillary clinton wins by a lot, it will be hard for donald trump to not concede. if hillary clinton only wins by a little, you can imagine the scenario in which donald trump, as he has suggested over the last week, decides not to concede. it is smart for the clinton campaign to be thinking about that. it is smart to be thinking about the message they would want to put out. if that is the way donald trump goes, and i'm not talking about recounts, if donald trump
refuses to concede and it is clear she has won, he will go down in history even more ignominiously as someone who does not respect american democracy. donny: i think he will go down in history next to joe mccarthy as one of the true nefarious characters in american history. donald trump is stealing the election from us. i was watching tv with my daughter. trump was talking about the elections. i did not want her first conversation to be about whether elections can be rigged. that is the scorched earth he will leave behind. what he said is true. i will be happy whatever what happens but i will leave these turds in my wake, one of them being half of the country not believing our elections, a fundamental bedrock of our democracy, are real and believable. it is disgusting. it is reprehensible. who does he think he is? just go away. you are vile. john: my hope is if hillary
clinton wins by a decisive margin that donald trump will maybe for the first time in the campaign realize he has responsibilities not just to himself and his followers. he also has responsibilities to the system, the country. i don't know if he will find his way. i hope for all of our sakes, he does if that circumstance arises. it is time for our daily wikileaks update. the group put out a tweet that seemed to suggest there may be a surprise for tim kaine and donna brazile. so far, that has been a squib. there were other new emails getting noticed today. one was from huma abedin who suggested hillary clinton solicited a $12 million commitment from the king of morocco in exchange for hosting a 2015 meeting. another message appears to be from a clinton aide who reportedly complained about bill
clinton not having to sign a conflict of interest document even though he is paid by foundation sponsors and gets many expensive gifts from them. the clinton campaign has long cited federal officials who say the russian government is behind the email hack. david sanger has a new piece saying if she wins, she will enter the white house with the most openly hostile relationship with russia since the cold war. this seems like a big deal. we have been focused on the short-term impact of wikileaks. but my question for you is, the government is convinced russia is behind this. i'm talking to national security officials. they say russia is behind this whole thing. hillary clinton believes it. what are the implications long-term for u.s./russia relations if she becomes president?
donny: steve schmidt gave a passionate speech about this is the first active cyber war. i think this is going to be a benefit to hillary clinton. the best way to get a constituency together is a common enemy. mitt romney was right. this is our big geopolitical enemy at this point. i think hillary clinton will come out swinging. isis doesn't have a face. there is a face on vladimir putin. i think hillary clinton will use this and other things like ukraine and the missile buildup, she will use this because it is a common enemy and that is the best way to get groups together. i think this will play to her benefit. john: one of the craziest things about this campaign is the way donald trump has cozied up to vladimir putin if no other reason than he is unpopular in america. his approval rating is below 10%. you never want to start off in a
supremely hostile situation with one of the great powers in the world. i think hillary clinton is making these arguments about putin now is not just to try to discredit the wikileaks thing, she is also trying to cast him and make clear what he has tried to do in the election, which is to intervene in the electoral process so she has the political constituency behind her to do what she needs to do to deal with russia. next, things get nasty. we will talk about the latest meme in presidential politics after this. ♪
hillary clinton: payroll contribution will go up, as will donald. we want to replenish the trust fund. john: since that moment in wednesday's debate, donald trump's "nasty woman" comment has taken on the quality of a meme, inspiring t-shirts and buttons and catching on like wildfire on social media among women of all generations. it is putting other republicans on the spot as well. today on fox news, the republican congressman was asked about trump's choice of words and defended his nominee. "sometimes a lady needs to be told when she is being nasty." ok. we are joined by stephanie schriock, president of emily's list. hillary clinton in the debate did a couple of things that
could have resonance with women. she has defended abortion rights. she went after donald trump as a sexual predator. this nasty meme seems to have caught on more than anything. why do you think that is? >> i think we watched that debate and saw an incredibly strong leader in hillary clinton. and right at the end, you heard this. even for me, and i watch all of this. i am a junkie of politics. i even felt a little bit like it was a sucker punch at the end. i think for some many women, for so many of us around the country, we have been in that room when some unqualified guy says something snarky or tries to belittle us right at the end. it is just like enough is enough. i think that is why it has caught attention because it went to our gut. we are seeing it all over. the energy of women of all ages, young women, older women, across-the-board like, that is
it. hillary clinton is the most qualified. we are proud to stand by her. she deserves to be president, and we are not going to take it anymore. i think that is what you're seeing all over social media and will see on election day. even in early voting, we are seeing that now. donny: i felt that moment -- i know the media has gone to rigged elections. but i was stunned at that. there was such a misogynistic tone. how did a man and woman go at each other on stage? hillary after being told she has hate in her heart and needs to be locked up, she has never responded with belligerence. i think they have done research and said a lot of men do not want to see a woman harshly respond to the man, so she was very disciplined. on the flipside, women did not want to see that kind of harsh
response. i think that was not in line with the sexual assaults but on the same path of a basic dislike for women. it was like a little jab. >> it was heard around the country. right in the gut. even personally. he said so many offensive things from the first day he announced his candidacy. he said things that shocked me that day. when i heard that at the debate, i knew instantly that this was going to be a moment. seven out of 10 women already dislike him. this is someone who has bragged about sexual assault. we are already there. this was like the extra bit of -- we shifted into high gear. now it is like we have got to get this done. we have to make sure we vote, that we talk to our sisters and
brothers and husbands and entire family and say enough is enough. this is the time to end this. i think that is that little bit for women using that term "nasty" and the way he did it, it really did catch fire. ignited fire maybe. john: i want to clarify i believe what donny was saying when he called it a jab was what hillary clinton said about donald trump's taxes was a jab and trump overreacted just so you are clear. i don't think he was saying what trump said was a little jab. just to defend donny. donny: i feel the love even though we are not together. john: one of the things that is powerful to me about this is the way in which it is resonant with me in which at times groups that are discriminated against embrace terms used against them.
there was a time when gays and lesbians adopted the term "queer" in a defiant way. when they heard homophobes calling them queer, they took it up as a badge of honor. that feels like what is happening among younger women who have taken to this quickly. they are like, you want to call me nasty? you are right i am nasty. >> you're seeing it all over social media. even at emily's list where we have a campaign going incredibly well called "women can stop trump," you saw the logo go out and it was "nasty women can stop trump." there's something about that. when you hear it initially, it is so painful that you have two choices. you can crumble underneath it or stand up and be proud and prove that person wrong. i think that is what we are seeing women across the country doing. we are going to stand up. donny: to that point, i think women will rise up.
watching trump, i think a lot of guys are saying this, i am saying this. maybe it is time for a woman to take over. it has not gone so bad in other countries. i think it has been a male with the worst male behavior we have ever seen. whatever the polls are showing with women, it will be that and then some. they have had it. i think a lot of men are saying let's give the lady a chance. >> i'm glad to hear you say that. it is way beyond time for us to iling.y crack through that glass we have in hillary clinton someone who stood on that debate stage with grace and grit to say i am prepared to do this. i thought during the entire debate, forget about the last moments, but the entire debate almost an evolution, another
step toward really becoming the leader of the free world. i was so inspired by her performance. and then her ability to stand and smile and say you can say whatever you're going to say, donald trump. we have all been around donald trumps like that. it does not matter. the stakes are too high and we will stay focused. i think it is an inspiration to women across the country as well. john: stephanie schriock, thank you for being on the show. next, we will have some monkey business. we will talk to the pollster monkey, jon cohen, when we come back. ♪ donny: i just want to say i
miss john and the studio because he defends me and i love him. with us is jon cohen from surveymonkey. we have been talking for months about a narrow electoral path for donald trump. how narrow is that right now? >> it is extraordinarily narrow right now and has closed a lot in the last six weeks since the debates. they did not help him nationally and it is not helping him in the states. he has a very narrow path that goes through the midwest. clinton is now contesting in places trump should not be defending like arizona and texas. john: john heilemann here. i have been looking at your polling over the last month. i know you look at it all the time. we just finished the big three debates. some think they were masterful performances by hillary clinton and moved the needle in terms of how the election is being fought on the ground. the impact of the tapes donald
trump had to suffer from and the accusations, what has been the effect of all the stuff that has happened? >> it is collateral damage to the trump campaign. on the democratic side, democrats have become increasingly supportive of clinton just like you would expect in the closing weeks of a campaign. that has not happened on the republican side. republicans are staying at the level of support they've had for the last six weeks. this is a big missed opportunity for him. in part because of the damage he has done to himself by the tapes and reaction to them. donny: let's talk about a potential wave. what is the tipping point as far as the popular vote electoral vote where it starts to take a toll down ballot? let's start with new hampshire. >> new hampshire, we have the democrats ahead in the senate and governors' races. we see a lot of closely contested ones from north carolina to arizona. it is really close.
your last segment was about female voters. they really will tip the balance in all the states. the gender gap is as big as we have seen. when you combine that with the education gap, you have white women with college degrees going incredibly for democratic candidates. that puts lots of southern states in play, not only for clinton, but also for the senate candidates. the democrats are in a good position. not as good as clinton is in terms of winning the white house, but they do have a shot of taking over the senate. john: i hear from republican pollsters doing private polling that they are sort of freaking out right now. right now, she is up by about six. if she got up to eight or nine, the senate would be gone for sure for the republicans. the house might be in jeopardy. what do you see in your numbers in terms of the likelihood of democrats retaking the senate and house? >> in our national polling, we
are right at the six number. we have been as high as nine and 10 and as low as one but not for a long time. clinton's lead has been steady nationally. there are no signs it has gone up substantially over the last month despite the damage to the trump campaign reported. she has not increased the lead dramatically. it will come down to idiosyncrasies of close races and the turnout of female voters. donny: give me the electoral numbers. does she get near 400? >> we have her solidly above 270. when we talk about how narrow his path is, it is very narrow or nonexistent. she has a shot in the mid 300's, but i doubt she will get to 400 unless only millennials vote. donny: coming up, we will show you the ohio interview trump walked out of yesterday. but first, these words from our sponsors. ♪
you have been called a sexist. how do you respond to that? >> i am the least racist person you've ever met. john: that with donald trump speaking, or rather, not speaking to an nbc reporter. here in our nation's capital, democratic strategist and former white house communications director anita dunn. you were watching donald trump walking out on interviews. you have been a communications director and guided many candidates. what do you think that says when see a candidate do that? it tells you what? >> the candidate doesn't want to answer questions from reporters. which means the candidate does not think things are going well, which means the campaign is on the downward trend. it's not a good thing when people start walking away from
reporters. if they are in a good mood, they will not do that. john: you have done a lot of crisis communications in political terms. i think after the debate on wednesday night were donald trump said he would not necessarily abide by the election result, some said that was a political crisis for him. the next day he came out a speech and doubled down on it. so, how do you think donald trump is handling this particular moment? a lot of people were sort of freaked out by what he said at the debate. >> he's handling it terribly. he needs to stop with this nonsense. for example, he has at least moved from there's a national conspiracy, so that is good. but he's got to move off of these contested elections. right now in states like florida and ohio, there is an automatic recount if it is closed. he should get back on track, get on his message, it's the only
time he has an really effective within the polls. donny: i want to stay with you as a crisis manager. let's go past the election assuming donald loses. he is the strongest brand. hotels are down 30%, 40%. golfle are canceling trips. i've got to go back to being donald. otto i do that? >> the biggest thing he's going to have to do to restore his brand is handle election night with some dignity and grace. that could be the beginning of the rehab. i think he's hearing a lot from his children, we've got to get this back on track. we are hurting right now, but that is where i would start. donny: i think he's smart enough to know he needs a reboot and i actually do think he will be gracious on election night and go from there.
let's say he does and the mantle is handed to hillary on a non-conspiracy level and typical, peaceful passage of power, what would be her first key things in her first 100 days during the transition? well, for hillary clinton, if she is elected president a key , thing for her would be to reach out to republicans, reach out to independents, and demonstrate, show, not tell that she is very serious about trying to bring everyone together. donny: obviously she has to reach across. that is one-on-one. give me a specific thing she could do, a tactic. >> i will give you two tactics. john: we don't have time anymore. >> one is she could sit down with donald trump very early. she said to him last night, we are all going to have to work together. she could call donald trump, sit down with him, talk to him. that would be a dramatic thing. the second thing she could do is
she could actually go to capitol hill and meet the leadership of those parties, go up there, not make them come to her. that would also be a strong signal. donny: kellyanne conway looks really tired. i think she's great. she has an unwinnable job. if you are managing her career now, she's at an interesting juncture. she has a brand and she can go down with the ship also. what we do tell her over the next 18 days? anita: she doesn't have to do anything. kellyanne's brand is as solid as it can be. yes, she went to work for a difficult candidate, but she has maintained good relationships. the fact that she's gone on the network so much she's been on , msnbc, cnn, fox, that has showed that she is willing to -- always stay in touch. i don't she has any ink to worry about. donny: i think she's great. i really appreciate it. coming up, a friend from
postelection, how does he do it? >> he will have to handle election night with some dignity and grace. that could be the beginning of the rehab. he is hearing a lot from his children. we have to get this back on track. we are hurting right now. donny: let's say he does in the mantle is handed to hillary and it typical peaceful passage of power, what would be her first key things in her first 100 days and during the transition? thing would be to very early on in her transition to
reach out to republicans, reach ,ut to independents demonstrate, show not tell, that she is serious about bringing everyone together. donny: we have never seen a , first lady, out on the campaign trail -- are they enough? whoou had to send one out, would you send out at this point? the second question is the easier question. michelle obama seems of the two to be really effective on the campaign trail. as for the first question, it is certainly not enough but it won't hurt. the fact that you have the president with his favorability and michelle obama with her effectiveness on the campaign trail making the case in the
context of donald trump engaging in all sorts of racial dog whistles, voter fraud, check out philadelphia, check out chicago. claims, dog whistles, or fog horns that say at those look at those black and brown people who will steal the election. to have the amount on the campaign trail offering the counterargument, indicting and condemning donald trump can't help but be effective. i think secretary clinton will have to do even more to get us excited or keep us excited, to keep the enthusiasm up. donny: i want you to take me to the campus as a professor. you're dealing with hundreds and hundreds of millenials. black, white, every color. i have been shocked at their apathy and lack of appetite for hillary clinton. i understand she is their parents candidate, but as far as free tuition and her take on climate, this is in the wheelhouse for anybody in that millennial age bracket and they are just not biting. >> i think there is a matter of
trust. many of them were supporters of bernie sanders and many of them heard her counterargument to his initial recommendation around these issues. remember, she said that they weren't doable, that these issues weren't practical, that bernie sanders was naïve. and so there is a sense in which they don't believe she's coming to these issues with full faith. i think there's also a deep skepticism, donny, about the current two-party system. young millenials are active and they are making rational choices , and i think they are generally dissatisfied with the current political climate. they are trying to figure out how to act politically. there is a new study out, gen forward, the university of chicago, breaking down millennials of color and what they see in the data is that although there is skepticism,
black millennials are breaking towards hillary clinton. but it is still couched in a general skepticism about whether or not she's really committed to these issues, right? they know if she gets in office, they are questioning whether she is in office will she even , pursue these issues. john: i want to ask you a question in a broad sense. we have finished these three debates, right? all of the massively rated. the first 1, 60 million in the second one, 70 million in the third one. there was a discussion about criminal justice issues and a little bit about race. beyond that, i don't think the topics was broached for the rest of the debates. if you are an african-american man or woman of any age, watching those three debates in america, your takeaway is what? eddie: it's not only invisibility, but disposability. what made the second debate -- what made the silence in the second debate more egregious was
that they were at washington university in st. louis, 15 minutes down the street from ferguson. hillary clinton didn't even broach the subject, and she could have, particularly when the question was asked, could donald trump govern all of america. and so part of what we have seen, and i have said this before, is that there's a kind of confusion on the part of the clinton campaign. on the one hand they seek to activate the obama coalition. they want to take those constituencies, get them excited and motivated to go out and win. but on the other hand they want , to activate the coalition that elected bill clinton. that coalition, that strategy was predicated on triangulation. that involved taking black voters for granted. so it seems to me that confusion is evident, has been evidenced over the course of this campaign and throughout the debates as well. as an african-american voter, i must admit that i was pretty upset as i was watching. john: i had a feeling you might
be just knowing you a little bit. let me take that answer to that question and loop it back to the first answer you gave to donny. if i were running for president and i was a democrat and had michelle obama and barack obama on my side, i would have them out there every day i could given their popularity and skills as performers. if i were an african-american voter in a swing or battleground state and i felt that the job of getting me excited was being outsourced by the clinton campaign to the black president and black first lady, i might think that was a little condescending. am i wrong to think that? that you might feel that way if you are african-american? eddie: some may feel that way, john. i think more than anything, african-american voters what to confront candidates who are seriously thinking about issues that are confronting their communities. and so you can send surrogate after surrogate. it can be barack obama, michelle
obama. it could be bernie sanders. it could even be usher or chris brown or beyonce. you can set these surrogates out, but at the end of the day, african-americans want to hear policy platforms around employment. they want to hear how you will substantively address criminal the urban housing crisis in our communities. it's not enough to send us to the white papers you have risen. -- written. you have to lay out the policies in detail so that we can then engage you. the urban policy we have heard from the clinton campaign, i have a lot of questions. are we going to rely on enterprise zones again? we have been relying on that for a long time. is that sufficient? i think that at the end of the day we need to start treating african-american voters as substantive, thoughtful, rational actors. the obama's are going to do a great job, but again, they are
♪ john: further deepening the sense of foreboding in the republican party these days are some new fundraising numbers out just now that show democrats are out raising republicans in every way on every level, from what was raised, to what was spent, to cash on hand. hillary clinton is outpacing donald trump. democrats are outpacing republicans. here with us to talk more about this and other topics of
interest is our guest from "the washington post." we are showing a bunch of stuff on our wall that makes our point. democrats seem to be ahead in most important respects. am i right to think that is something that if i were a republican looking at everything else going on in the world, this would just be another cause for deep concern? >> you could call it the icing on the cake or a symptom of the larger problem, right? one of the things happening now is that hillary clinton and the democratic party had twice as much money on hand as republicans and donald trump heading into his last final month before election day. by anyway you measure it that is , not helpful. if you look at how they are spending their money, you also see the democrats have a huge advantage, especially on the ground and in the air. so hillary clinton's campaign spent $66 million last month just on ads, three times as much as donald trump. she has 815 paid staff.
he had 168. the numbers really show the huge difference in infrastructure. john: right. let me ask you the obvious question. donald trump has had a horrific three weeks, just horrific by , any historical standards in terms of the stories he's been dealing with, the controversy he has been immersed in, how he handled them, and all of that stuff. hillary clinton is massively outspending him. and yet, although she has a demonstrable lead nationally, six points according to the polling averages, it's not a run away yet, right? the director of surveymonkey said he doesn't see a landslide. so why is that? >> it's clear we had seen this dynamic since the beginning of the election cycle, that this is an incredibly polarized electorate. ade up their mind very
early on about both these candidates, and they just are not going to be launched. this election is coming down to fighting over those less little slices of demographic that for whatever reason have not made up their mind. i do think we saw more volatility post labor day then than we typically do. that's in part because there's also not great affinity for these candidates. while there is a lot of animus on both sides, people have doubts about their own candidate and they are able to be swayed. we are seeing it go back-and-forth enough at the margins, not the huge sweep in one direction or another. donny: i want to do a bit and do our daily wiki update. out. day something drips today it's about a $12 million donation by the king of morocco. on of the reasons none of this is getting traction is because donald steals it every day. even if donald was behaving like a normal candidate, it doesn't feel like any of his stuff is sticking. matea: we have spent quite a bit of time looking through the e-mails that are being released,
and you have to put into context that taken alone, some of these e-mails seem dramatic or alarming and it's important to do some reporting around them and understand what they say a what they signify about the way clinton has operated in her campaign and how the foundation operated. so far we have not seen this kind of dramatic bombshell that wikileaks and others have promised. i do think we are seeing a lot of fascinating insights into how she managed her campaign, approached this race. i mean really interesting nuances when you get behind the scenes and try to have a better understanding of the political calculations they have been making. but if anything, these revelations have reinforced perceptions of the way she approached a lot of the issues this year. i don't think they have really delivered any huge surprises. donny: the reason the e-mail stake is because the average
person goes, she erased 33,000 e-mails. she must be up to no good. there's just not a headline there. there is not a sound bite there. what would be that situation? what would be that soundbite, the kind of thing a republican would be drooling to see in an e-mail? matea: at this point it's very hard to speculate about hypotheticals about what would wouldthere and what garner headlines. i don't think it's helpful for her to have this constant press of stories about the political calculations that her strategists were making and trying to figure out how to make decisions on ttp, for example. it doesn't help her with her labor allies. it doesn't help her with the business community. there's no question this is not helpful. i don't think we have any indication we will see any wrongdoing in these emails. a lot of it is just sort of filling in the gaps of the story that we have seen play out over the last almost two main years now. john: i want to bring our conversation to an end in the
last minute we have together with the way everyone wants to end a friday afternoon, which is talking about journalistic self-investigation. things we journalists like to think about in the dark nights of our soul. you covered this wikileaks thing. it's complicated because you're dealing with stolen goods. there are questions about how do you verify those e-mails that have been leaked are real. but there is all the question that has been posed by a lot of people. is it ok for us to be covering property that has really been stolen, presumably by russia, handed to wikileaks, and put out to try to intervene in an american election in an unprecedented way. how do you guys grapple with this at the "post," and you personally? matea: our view is, this material is out there. it's being interpreted by people who actually don't have a lot of knowledge of the reporting or the nuances of these issues. we can help serve our readers by bringing context around the e-mails and provide a full or